SÃO JOSÉ DOS CAMPOS, Brazil – Embraer expects global demand for 8,500 new commercial airplanes in the sub-150-seat category, worth $650 billion, over the next 20 years, the aircraft manufacturer said in its 2026 Market Outlook released Saturday.

The forecast, published ahead of next week’s Farnborough International Airshow, projects global passenger traffic, measured in revenue passenger kilometers (RPK), will grow at an average annual rate of 3.7% through 2045.

China is expected to record the fastest annual RPK growth at 5.2%, followed by the Middle East at 4.6%, Africa at 4.4%, Latin America and the Caribbean at 4.3%, Asia Pacific at 4.1%, Europe at 2.7% and North America at 2.0%.

By 2045, Asia Pacific and China are projected to account for 40% of global passenger traffic, while Europe and North America are expected to represent a combined 37%, according to the report.

North America is forecast to receive the largest share of new aircraft deliveries, with 2,670 jets, or 31% of the total. Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States are projected to receive 1,870 aircraft (22%), followed by China with 1,470 (17%), Asia Pacific with 1,050 (13%), Latin America with 740 (9%), Africa with 370 (4%) and the Middle East with 330 (4%).

The report also examines global economic and aviation trends affecting aircraft demand across seven regions and includes an analysis of the standard-body cargo aircraft segment for aircraft weighing less than 40 metric tons.

Embraer will showcase the E195-E2, the largest member of its E2 narrow-body family, and the KC-390 Millennium tactical transport and multi-mission aircraft at the five-day Farnborough Airshow.